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Abstract This paper looks at how industrial strategy can use conditionalities to make sure that public-private partnerships are goal-oriented with conditionalities that serve public purpose. Conditionality can be a key tool to shape markets and foster inclusive and sustainable economic growth. We de...

This paper uses microdata on U.S. mutual fund and ETF portfolios from SEC Form N- PORT to study American investment in Chinese Renminbi (RMB)–denominated bonds. We show that, even as total foreign holdings of Chinese bonds rebounded in 2024, U.S. holdings of RMB bonds fell sharply and that most of t...

A central insight from neoclassical economics is that international trade operates like an improvement in production technology.It generates mutual aggregate welfare gains for countries as a whole, but creates winners and losers within countries.Tariffs are a tax on this trading technology and disto...

This paper compares the impacts of critical mineral price and oil price on an economy in a unified neoclassical growth model.Unlike oil price shocks, which affect the cost of utilizing existing capital (e.g., cars), critical mineral price shocks influence the cost of creating new capital (e.g., elec...

This study provides evidence that geopolitical considerations systematically shape funding evaluations of international collaboration proposals.We examine this dynamic in the consequential context of U.S.-China collaboration.Across two large-scale randomized experiments with U.S. policymakers and U....

We model a multi-stage supply chain for EVs from battery production to vehicle distribution.Given industrial policies, firms select where to open facilities at each stage.This is a difficult combinatorial choice problem that we solve with a fast mixed integer linear programming formulation.We estima...

Captive finance subsidiaries create a channel for trade policy to affect consumer credit. Examining the impact of the Trump administration’s metal tariffs on captive automobile lenders, we find that consumers received higher interest rates from captive lenders after the tariffs relative to unaffecte...

States increasingly outsource coercion to the market, using sanctions to deter private actors from dealing with blacklisted entities. Despite the key role of such intermediaries, research on economic statecraft is ambiguous about the effect and boundaries of such actions on market participants. We a...

We discuss the conditions under which global imbalances, such as China being a largeforeign creditor and the United States being a large foreign debtor, might also generatepower imbalances. We highlight possible theoretical channels and empirical measuresthat the future literature could investigate ...

In 2025, statutory tariff rates on U.S. imports rose to levels not seen in over one hundred years.What are the implications for prices?On the one hand, shipping lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps have kept the actual implemented rates at only half of the statutory rates, moderating the tariffs' ...

We use global tariffs to reveal the weights that nations implicitly place on the welfare of their trading partners relative to their own.Our estimated welfare weights suggest that formal and informal rules of the world trading system make countries internalize the impact of their policies onto other...

We document and characterize a new history of U.S. federal-level industrial policies by scanning all 12,167 Congressional Acts and 6,030 Presidential Orders from 1973 through 2022.We find several interesting patterns.First, contrary to a common perception, the United States has always been an active...

The CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in August 2022, is a key element of the revival of U.S. industrial policy.We examine the short-term employment effects of the act.Drawing on quarterly industry-by-county data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), we implement two county-level di...

executive summary: This essay examines how foreign direct investment changed from propelling world economic growth between 1980 and 2010 to being altered in character and held back in expansion since the 2008–10 global financial crisis. main argument FDI became a truly significant part of the world ...

The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies.The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds.This app...

We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system.These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves.These trends ar...

We use high-frequency retail microdata to measure the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices.By matching daily prices from major U.S. retailers to product-level tariff rates and countries of origin, we construct price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes ac...

This paper documents stylized facts about the "Great Reallocation" in US supply chain trade following the 2018-2019 tariff shocks and the April 2025 Liberation Day announcements.We find that: (i) The US has decoupled from China but not from the world overall.(ii) US imports diversified mainly among ...

This paper examines the impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016.Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, we combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data collected through our Decision Maker Panel survey.These estimates sug...

In a paper 20 years ago, we analyzed the evolution of the international monetary system over the preceding 20 years and projected its evolution 20 years into the future, on the assumption of unchanged transition probabilities. Here we compare those projections with outcomes and provide new projectio...

We develop a general-equilibrium model in which the safety of a country's currency and the choice of its exchange-rate regime arise endogenously.Calibrated to pre-2025 data, the model replicates the U.S. dollar's safety premium, low Treasury yields, and its status as the world's anchor currency.Intr...

The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large income tax cuts.This fiscal switch has important implications for the US tax system.While maintaini...

This paper examines the effects of tariffs along the supply chain using product-level data from a large U.S. wine importer in the context of the 2019-2021 U.S. tariffs on European wines.By combining confidential transaction prices with foreign suppliers and U.S. distributors as well as retail prices...

Economics students today learn about mercantilism through Smith's prism, as a series of logical and policy errors that Smith clarified and settled for good. But far from settled doctrine, mercantilism encapsulated a variety of pragmatic practices that survived Smith's critique, often to good effect....

This paper studies how Knightian uncertainty about the distribution of future trade policies affects current trade flows using a dynamic trade model with a sunk cost of exporting.Qualitatively, tradepolicy ambiguity reduces export participation in a similar manner to standard trade-policy risk, but ...

Abstract Has the dominance of the dollar in global trade rendered monetary policy ineffective? An emerging view contends that if a country invoices its exports in dollars, exchange rates cannot stabilize economic activity, as the classical expenditure-switching channel is muted. This view rests on t...

I use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with supply-chain adjustment frictions to study the effects of tariffs on manufacturing employment.The model has four distinct manufacturing sectors: upstream goods with high trade elasticities ("oil"); upstream goods with low trade elasticities ("steel"); d...

Based on the new integrated accounting framework of global supply chains (GSC) (Wang, Wei, Yu, and Zhu, 2025), we derive three types of economic dependence (producers' dependence on upstream supplies, producers' dependence on downstream markets, and consumers' dependence on supply chains) that take ...

US multinationals formed joint ventures in China for market access and lower labor costs.However, these ventures transfer technology to Chinese firms, fueling future competition.While individual firms weigh the risks to their own profits, they disregard the negative impact on other US firms and the ...

Abstract Across most of the world’s major geopolitical struggles, states have increasingly turned to tools of economic coercion. Despite growing criticisms of overuse and concerns that it generates risks to global stability, law and legal institutions have largely failed to meet the challenge presen...

We examine the effects of Ukraine's economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions' efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations.We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in ant...

We analyze the determinants of individual central bank holdings of international reserves, as shares of gold, dollar, euro, pound, yen and yuan, over the 1999-2022 period.We augment standard economic determinants of size, exchange rate volatility, currency pegs and bilateral trade with bilateral pol...

As geopolitical tensions intensify, great powers often turn to trade policy to influence international alignment.We examine the optimal design of tariffs in a world where large countries care not only about economic welfare but also about the political allegiance of smaller states.We consider both a...

Using novel scenario-based survey questions that randomize the expected duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflict, we examine the causal impact of geopolitical risk on consumers' beliefs about aggregate economic conditions and their own financial outlook.Expecting a longer...

Geoeconomic pressure-the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic goals-is a prominent feature of global power dynamics.This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically identify the application of and response t...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where countries trade goods and assets, leading to trade imbalances.We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting without specifying the stochastic process of shocks or solving for asset prices...

We measure the response of financial outcomes to the US announcement on April 2, 2025, of tariffs on nearly all its trading partners.To address the challenge posed by potential anticipation by economic agents, we decompose these tariffs into a component associated with bilateral deficits and an argu...

We estimate transitory and permanent import tariff shocks in the United States over the postwar period.We find that transitory tariff increases are neither inflationary nor contractionary, and are not associated with monetary tightening.In contrast, permanent tariff increases trigger a temporary ris...

U.S. President Trump's emphasis on 'tariff reciprocity' has focused public attention on relative height of tariffs as a measure of fairness in trade relations.The importweighted average tariff subsequently used by USTR to rank how protectionist are trading partners is atheoretic and misleading for t...

This paper proposes a new unified accounting framework to measure Global Supply Chain (GSC) activities.It integrates decomposition frameworks on gross output, trade, and value added, and formally incorporates the role of Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs).Compared to the existing Global Value Chain...

Since the 18th century, policymakers have debated the merits of industrial policy (IP).Yet, economists lack basic facts about its use due to measurement challenges.We propose a new approach to IP measurement based on information contained in policy text.We show how off-theshelf supervised machine le...

This paper studies how innovation reacts to foreign political risk and shapes its economic consequences.In a model with foreign political shocks that can disrupt the supply of foreign inputs, we show that greater political risk abroad increases domestic innovation, thereby lowering reliance on risky...

Global supply chains have transformed the world. They revolutionised development options facing poor nations – now they can join supply chains rather than having to invest decades in building their own. Offshoring of labour-intensive manufacturing stages and the attendant international mobility of t...

Using a novel comprehensive dataset on sanctions imposed on the exports to Russia after 2022, we document four stylized facts. First, these sanctions covered 33 percent of Russia's pre-2022 imports in value. Second, though most of the sanctions were concentrated in a few high-tech product categories...

Geoeconomics is the use of a country's economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals.We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide research on geoeconomics.Economic threats as a form of coe...

We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade.We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession whenever the import elasticity is below an openness-weighted average of the export elasticity and the in...

Hegemonic powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships.Mechanisms that generate gains from integration, such as external economies of scale and specialization, also increase the hegemon's...

The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many “bystander” countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding the United States and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rathe...

We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises w...

EU policy emphasises the need for digital sovereignty, also in artificial intelligence (AI). But because such ‘AI sovereignty’ could be used for diverse and even conflicting goals, it obscures the tensions that actual EU AI strategy entails. Conceptually, this article proposes three central trade-of...

In this paper, we provide the first quantitative evaluation of the impacts and interactions of the US-China trade wars and industrial policy competitions. To that end, we extend the model in Caliendo and Parro (2015) by incorporating sectoral external economies of scale. We find that (i) in the pres...

Relations between the US and China have deteriorated to their lowest point since their rapprochement in the 1970s. To make sense of contemporary geopolitics, our objective in this article is two-fold. First, we historically situate contemporary US-China rivalry to conceptualise the Second Cold War (...

Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks.We document shifts in the pattern of US participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of partner countries, products, and modes...

We study the financial implications of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war for global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs are announced, U.S. firms depending more on exports to and imports from China experience larger declines in stock returns. The negative impact spill over to the af...

The fear of falling behind has been a driving force of European integration. Historically, Europe’s response to the looming angst of declining competitiveness has been more market-creation, not market-direction. Recently, however, Europe has – in the name of safeguarding Europe’s technological sover...

Within Europe’s regulatory state, industrial policy has largely remained within national governments’ remit. Yet, a plethora of new supra- and cross-national industrial policy initiatives have recently emerged whereby the Commission proactively engages in pan-European activities to foster innovation...

Growing techno-geopolitical uncertainty affects international business in many ways, calling for more scholarly attention to its causes and multinational enterprise (MNE) responses. The United States CHIPS and Science Act epitomizes the country’s recent embrace of techno-nationalism in its economic ...

Little is known about optimal policy in the face of global supply chain disruptions. Should governments promote resilience by subsidizing backup sources of input supply in multiple countries? Should they encourage firms to source from safer domestic suppliers? We address these questions in a model o...

After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which,...

Despite a varied picture in terms of their relative economic strength, Developing and Emerging Economies (DEEs) remain in a subordinate position in the global monetary and financial system. While the IPE and economics literatures provide rich insights about the significance of this phenomenon, resea...

We examine election voting and legislators ’ roll-call votes in the United States over a twenty- fi ve year period. Voters in areas more exposed to trade liberalization with China in 2000 sub-sequently shift their support toward Democrats, relative to the 1990s, though this boost for Democrats wanes ...

We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period from 2000 to 2019.The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination.Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, ove...

In 2018, the United States launched a trade war with China, marking an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the United States had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion of US exports...

We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small handfu...

Abstract Contrary to expectations, economic interdependence has not tempered security conflict between China and the United States. In response to perceived domestic and external threats, the Chinese Communist Party's actions to ensure regime security have generated insecurity in other states, causi...

Abstract This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the referendum affected consumer prices. We find that the Brexit depreciat...

Modern trade agreements no longer emphasize basic trade liberalization but instead focus on international policy coordination in a much broader sense. In this review we introduce the emerging literature on the political economy of such deep integration agreements. We organize our discussion around t...

Abstract Global firms finance themselves through foreign subsidiaries, often shell companies in tax havens, which obscures their true economic location in official statistics. We associate the universe of traded securities issued by firms in tax havens with their issuer's ultimate parent and restate...

Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and how ...

Abstract In response to President Trump instigating conflict over trade with China, the Chinese government countered by issuing tariffs on thousands of products worth over USD 110 billion in US exports. We explore whether China's tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counterpressure by hurting polit...

Abstract As International Organization commemorates its seventy-fifth anniversary, the Liberal International Order (LIO) that authors in this journal have long analyzed is under challenge, perhaps as never before. The articles in this issue explore the nature of these challenges by examining how the...

Abstract With the future of liberal internationalism in question, how will China's growing power and influence reshape world politics? We argue that views of the Liberal International Order (LIO) as integrative and resilient have been too optimistic for two reasons. First, China's ability to profit ...

Abstract Scholars and policymakers long believed that norms of global information openness and private-sector governance helped to sustain and promote liberalism. These norms are being increasingly contested within liberal democracies. In this article, we argue that a key source of debate over the L...

This paper evaluates the extent to which the world economy has entered a phase of de-globalisation, and it offers some speculative thoughts on the future of global value chains in the post-COVID-19 age. Although the growth of international trade flows relative to that of GDP has slowed down since th...

Abstract This study proposes a novel channel through which trade liberalization may induce innovation through the reduction of trade policy uncertainties (TPU) in destination markets. To verify this linkage, we utilize the significant reduction of TPU engendered by China’s accession to the World Tra...

Abstract In July 2017, China’s State Council released the country’s strategy for developing artificial intelligence (AI), entitled ‘New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan’ (新一代人工智能发展规划). This strategy outlined China’s aims to become the world leader in AI by 2030, to monetise AI int...

ABSTRACT Industrial policy is back at the centre stage of policy debate, while the world is undergoing dramatic transformations. This article contributes to the debate by developing a new theory of industrial policy, incorporating some issues that have been neglected so far and taking into account t...

This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of...

This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. It will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations.

We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partial...

We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration during 2018. In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States ex...

Abstract After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Pric...

The rapid reshaping of the global economic order requires fundamental shifts in international business scholarship and management practice. New forms of protectionist policies, new types of internationalization motives, and new tools of techno-nationalism may lead to what we call ''bifurcated govern...

We present a framework for understanding the effects of automation and other types of technological changes on labor demand, and use it to interpret changes in US employment over the recent past. At the center of our framework is the allocation of tasks to capital and labor—the task content of produ...

The liberal international order, erected after the Cold War, was crumbling by 2019. It was flawed from the start and thus destined to fail. The spread of liberal democracy around the globe—essential for building that order—faced strong resistance because of nationalism, which emphasizes self-determi...

Abstract How does forced migration affect the politics of host states and, in particular, how does it impact states’ foreign policy decision-making? The relevant literature on refugee politics has yet to fully explore how forced migration affects host states’ behavior. One possibility is that they w...

The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union but the trade policies that will replace E.U. membership are uncertain, and speculation abounds that this uncertainty will harm the U.K. economy until it is resolved. To assess the impact of uncertainty about post-Brexit trade policies, I stud...

We exploit changes in the area-specific eligibility criteria for a program to support jobs through investment subsidies. European rules determine whether an area is eligible for subsidies, and we construct instrumental variables for area eligibility based on parameters of these rule changes. Areas e...

Abstract Liberals claim that globalization has led to fragmentation and decentralized networks of power relations. This does not explain how states increasingly “weaponize interdependence” by leveraging global networks of informational and financial exchange for strategic advantage. The theoretical ...

Abstract States with large markets routinely compete with one another to shield domestic regulatory policies from global pressure, export their rules to other jurisdictions, and provide their firms with competitive advantages. Most arguments about market power tend to operationalize the concept in e...

One of the eventual consequences of the global debt crisis that erupted in 1982 was a wave of market-oriented economic reforms, the likes of which have never been seen. The reforms were strongest and most sustained in Latin America, where countries like Bolivia, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, an...

Economists have a tendency to associate “free trade agreements” all too closely with “free trade.” They may be unaware of some of the new (and often problematic) beyond-the-boarder features of current trade agreements. As trade agreements have evolved and gone beyond import tariffs and quotas into r...

ABSTRACT Before the 1980s, the mainstream Western prescription for developing countries to catch up with the West assigned the state a leading role in governing the market. In the 1980s, this shifted to a framework‐providing role in a largely deregulated and maximally open economy. Also in the 1980s...

Abstract Why has U.S. grand strategy persisted since the end of the Cold War? Despite shocks such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the costs of the war in Iraq—circumstances that ought to have stimulated at least a revision—the United States remains committed to a grand strategy of “primacy.”...

I model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development. The most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better. In good times, the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a...

We examine the effects of trade liberalization in China on the evolution of markups and productivity of manufacturing firms. Although these dimensions of performance cannot be separately identified when firm output is measured by revenue, detailed price deflators make it possible to estimate the ave...

Abstract We propose a simple model of the international monetary system. We study the world supply and demand for reserve assets denominated in different currencies under a variety of scenarios: a hegemon versus a multipolar world; abundant versus scarce reserve assets; and a gold exchange standard ...

In this article, we investigate the dynamics of contestation and adaptation that are unfolding within global financial markets as China seeks to internationalize its currency, the renminbi (RMB) or yuan. We develop a conceptual framework that stresses the potential malleability of the global monetar...

The WTO has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand-off, where the WTO has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage, and is ...

Mainstream approaches to international political economy seek to explain the political transformations that have made more open trade relations possible. They stress how changing coalitions of interest groups within particular states and changing functional needs of states give rise to new internati...

countries reached agreement on a new climate treaty that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described as 'a monumental triumph for people and our planet'. 1 The Paris Agreement represented a remarkable reversal of fortune for the UN-sponsored climate negotiations. After adopting the UN Framework Conve...

China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adju...

"A book about how nations use economic instruments to pursue geopolitical objectives. From Russia's coercive economic pressure on Ukraine, in Europe, and in Central Asia; to the steady sums of money that Gulf monarchies have extended to the Egyptian government following the ouster of President Morsi...

In this paper, we draw on established theoretical work to analyze empirically which segments of the population in the target states bear the most cost when economic sanctions are imposed. Using a cross-country analysis of 68 target states from 1960 to 2008, we find robust empirical evidence that the...

We develop an endogenous growth model in which clean and dirty technologies compete in production. Research can be directed to either technology. If dirty technologies are more advanced, the transition to clean technology can be difficult. Carbon taxes and research subsidies may encourage production...

How do global supply chain linkages modify countries' incentives to impose import protection? Are these linkages empirically important determinants of trade policy? To address these questions, we introduce supply chain linkages into a workhorse terms-of-trade model of trade policy with political eco...

Despite the frequent use of economic and military-specific sanctions against countries affected by civil conflicts, little is known about the possible impact that these coercive tools have on conflict dynamics. This article examines how threats and imposition of international sanctions affect the in...

Abstract Despite significant research on the efficacy and inadvertent humanitarian and political effects of economic sanctions, surprisingly little is known about the possible economic and financial consequences of sanctions for target economies. Synthesizing insights from the currency crisis litera...

How large are optimal tariffs? What tariffs would prevail in a worldwide trade war? How costly would a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation be? And what is the scope for future multilateral trade negotiations? I address these and other questions using a unified framework which nests t...

For several years now, China has implemented policies to promote the international use of its national currency, the Renminbi (RMB). As part of these efforts, the People's Bank of China (PBC) has negotiated 25 bilateral currency swap agreements (BSAs) with foreign central banks. These make it easier...

We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity in production to quantify the trade and welfare effects from tariff changes. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a...

We construct measures of net private and public capital flows for a large cross-section of developing countries considering both creditor and debtor side of the international debt transactions. Using these measures, we demonstrate that sovereign-to-sovereign transactions account for upstream capital...

Abstract The importance of R&D investment in explaining economic growth is well documented in the literature. Policies by modern governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting R&D investment. Government funding has, however, become an increasingly scarce resource in times of f...

What is the relationship between domestic and international politics in a world of economic interdependence? This article discusses and organizes an emerging body of scholarship, which the authors label the new interdependence approach , addressing how transnational interactions shape domestic insti...

“Contested multilateralism” describes the situation that results from the pursuit of strategies by states, multilateral organizations, and non-state actors to use multilateral institutions, existing or newly created, to challenge the rules, practices, or missions of existing multilateral institution...

We analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization and instrumenting for US imports using changes in Chinese imports by other hig...

The Bagwell and Staiger (1990) theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs (i) increase with imports, (ii) increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities, and (iii) decrease with the variance of imports. We find US import policy during 1997–2...

I highlight two advantages of adopting a “new trade” approach to trade negotiations. First, it allows for a view of trade negotiations in which producer interests play a prominent role. And second, it lends itself naturally to quantitative analyses of non-cooperative and cooperative trade policy. My...

What underlying long-term conditions set the stage for the Arab Spring? In recent decades, the Arab region has been characterized by an expansion in schooling coupled with weak labor market conditions. This pattern is especially pronounced in those countries that saw significant upheaval during the ...

China's economic reforms have resulted in spectacular growth and poverty reduction. However, China's institutions look ill-suited to achieve such a result, and they indeed suffer from serious shortcomings. To solve the “China puzzle,” this paper analyzes China's institution—a regionally decentralize...

Abstract This article examines the evolving, cross‐country use of antidumping, safeguard and countervailing duty policies – temporary trade barriers (TTBs) – over the period 1990–2009. I construct two new measures of imported products subject to the combined use of these TTBs before applying these m...

According to the terms-of-trade theory, governments use trade agreements to escape from a terms-of-trade-driven prisoner's dilemma. We use the terms-of-trade theory to develop a relationship that predicts negotiated tariff levels on the basis of pre-negotiation data: tariffs, import volumes and pric...

Economic models that do not incorporate financial frictions only explain about 70 to 80 percent of the decline in world trade that occurred in the 2008–2009 crisis. We review evidence that shows financial factors also contributed to the great trade collapse and uncover two new stylized facts in supp...

Abstract The present paper evaluates the international status of the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), by examining its use in the global market. Specifically, the discussion focuses on the recent developments of RMB trading in the global foreign exchange market, cross‐border trade settlement in...

I suggest a novel theory of GATT/WTO negotiations based on Krugman’s “new trade” model. It emphasizes international production relocations and is easy to calibrate to bilateral trade data. Focusing on the major players in recent GATT/WTO negotiations, I find that it implies reasonable noncooperative...

This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across districts and liberalization intensity across production sectors allows a difference-in-diff...

ABSTRACT As dramatically evidenced by the global financial crisis, the interaction of domestic regulatory systems has significant international consequences. Nevertheless, these relationships have received only limited attention from international relations scholars. This special issue, therefore, p...